Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 2.198153e-01 0.260530 0.304034 0.353705 0.408572 0.467068 0.533886
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 1.587772e-01 0.212040 0.273270 0.347761 0.434851 0.532423 0.648970
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 1.209497e-01 0.181520 0.256115 0.352107 0.469795 0.606984 0.776577
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 8.908256e-02 0.151578 0.234224 0.346557 0.490488 0.664306 0.885634
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 6.275278e-02 0.122995 0.209024 0.332626 0.497900 0.704180 0.973970
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 4.912498e-02 0.109459 0.201559 0.340041 0.531519 0.776569 1.103494
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 3.530149e-02 0.091894 0.185217 0.332701 0.543947 0.821315 1.198790
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 2.931691e-02 0.086315 0.185957 0.349162 0.588718 0.908767 1.350124
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 2.193953e-02 0.075750 0.176856 0.349582 0.610300 0.965444 1.462377
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 1.634957e-02 0.066898 0.169048 0.350749 0.632219 1.022450 1.575635
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 1.293874e-02 0.061824 0.167039 0.360536 0.666583 1.096819 1.712920
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 1.050139e-02 0.058283 0.167248 0.373610 0.705904 1.178566 1.861191
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 8.243264e-03 0.054362 0.166388 0.385185 0.744032 1.260569 2.012929
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 5.409954e-03 0.046649 0.156383 0.379974 0.755808 1.305333 2.114648
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 3.825830e-03 0.042232 0.152601 0.385250 0.783879 1.373772 2.249859
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.274556e-03 0.036044 0.143469 0.379752 0.794179 1.416345 2.349611
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 1.054165e-03 0.028967 0.130329 0.365166 0.788583 1.434945 2.415625
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 6.539368e-04 0.026651 0.128967 0.373205 0.820421 1.509409 2.561274
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 2.475827e-04 0.022117 0.120221 0.365475 0.825118 1.542974 2.648976
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.653619e-04 0.021730 0.123664 0.383058 0.873471 1.643278 2.833325
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 5.150285e-05 0.019035 0.119218 0.383539 0.892088 1.698422 2.953249
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 8.790714e-06 0.016734 0.115347 0.384800 0.911883 1.755490 3.076441
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 9.963538e-07 0.015711 0.115658 0.395227 0.948069 1.838318 3.237861